This blog is a compilation of my thoughts on the evolution of the international system, the power dynamics of today's globalized world, and the underlying trends shaping the 21st century. If there is an overarching goal (beyond a purely cognitive exercise), it would be to assess potential outcomes in the international arena in the short- and mid-term in order to prepare a reasonable path to achieve (a) peaceful cohabitation, (b) sustainability/successful sharing of limited resources, and (c) the preservation of an open trading system that tends to benefit the vast majority of parties over the long-term. However, I am mostly writing this blog because I find the subject matter enthralling. (For inspiration on doing what you love, watch Gary Vaynerchuk's speech).
Looking now, in 2010, at the future, known risks to this idealized future goal are numerous and ominous. The unknown risks are even more numerous and at least equally as disturbing. Major risks include the obvious, oft-mentioned areas: the return of Asia (particularly China), fear in the West of being eclipsed culturally and economically by the East, scarcity of resources, environmental degradation, a rebound in ultra-nationalist fervor (particularly in parts of Asia), a rise in dangerous transnational actors, the development of more sophisticated missile technology and space-based weaponry, the proliferation of nuclear warheads, financial shocks, global epidemics, proliferation of illicit financial networks, the drug market and the black market, slavery, human trafficking, natural disasters, rising debt in the developed world, changing demographics, unsustainable economic growth, broken political institutions, etc. The list literally could stretch around the world, as each region and each person could posit another dilemma or frame a risk in a slightly different fashion.
So, how do we sort through this mess of competing demands and variegated risks to uncover the most important ones, the ones that will be the most decisive in shaping the 21st century? Information can be chaotic and over-subscribed. Likewise, the analytical tools are fairly boundless. To me, scientific inquiry, interdisciplinary study, a measured understanding of current events, and a deep sense of long-term trends in history helps me sort ephemeral vs. lasting trends and helps me dissect the cascade of information.
In the next posts, I want to focus on the following five, overlapping trends that I believe will be instrumental in the evolution of our world over the next 20 - 30 years:
(1) The Changing Role of Technology
How will technology change our lives? How will it connect or divide people? How will reshaping the digital/physical worlds affect our lives? (Watch Mr. Pranav Mistry's fascinating discussion of the creation of SixthSense technology). What happens when the physical world is merged with the digital world? How will technology affect weaponry? Environmental sustainability? What will be the energy technologies of the future? For discussion on one of these developments, see Dr. George Friedman's discussion in January 2010. Bloom boxes? See CBS's coverage of these devices in 60 Minutes. Tesla cars (see here)? Tata Nanos (see here)? Will the U.S. be leading these innovations? Will China achieve its goal of zizhu chuangxin (loosely defined as "indigenous innovation")? (For a good discussion of zizhu chuangxin, see Prof. Richard Suttmeier's testimony to Congress). How will technological change drive economic growth? How will technology creation be incentivized? Will patent licensing work in China and elsewhere? How will technology bridge/divide/advantage/disadvantage countries as well as transnational actors? How will technology better our standards of living and extend our lives? What is the ramification of longer lifespans? And, much more...
(1a) How will technology reshape the perception of identity - religious, ethnic, political, national, etc.? Will it more often strengthen group identification (Self vs. Other) or harmonize people? How will groups resolve differences?
(1b) Can and should technology be shaped, pushed, or directed in a predictable fashion? Should there be a World Technological Center in the same way there is the World Bank, the IMF, the UN, and the WHO?
(2) The Return of Asia
How rapidly will Asia return to controlling more than 50% of total global output, as in the 18th century? How will Asia, particularly China, treat its newfangled power/status? How will the dynamic in Asia be shaped by China's return, particularly in Southeast Asia and in Japan? How will China view other countries in Asia, particularly Japan, and the rest of the world? How will the traditional Atlantic powers react to China's rise -- with fear or with a sense of opportunity? How will the U.S. preserve its hold on power, particularly in the Pacific Ocean, especially the seas around China, including the East China Sea and South China Sea? How will this affect shipping lanes? How will this affect trade of scarce materials? How will China's rising consumption affect the global economy? And, much more...
See Mr. Joseph Nye's speech at the TED Conference, which discusses power dynamics in international relations and some of the issues posed and opportunities presented by a resurgent Asia.
(3) The Demographic Peak and the Importance of Immigration
How will an aging population affect politics and economics? How will pensions and benefits be applied? How will aging countries struggle and eventually deal with a shrinking ratio of workers to retirees? How does this affect global power? Isolating a few countries in particular, how does the crisis of shoushikourei ka (or, "low births, rapid aging") affect Japan and Japan's future role/economic power? Why should Japan be worried? How will the same phenomenon affect Germany, France, the U.K., and the U.S.? Why and when will developed nations start aggressively competing for immigrants and eradicating most barriers to the distribution of work VISAs? Like the success of a solid company in a competitive field, why does the future of these nations depend on bringing in STEM and other talent from abroad? What are the ramifications of technology extending average lifespans? And, much more...
(4) Transnational Actors and National Actors to Watch
How will transnational actors gain in power? How will they use such increased power? Again, this goes back to the change in technology and the ease in the flow of information. Which national players are key to the 21st century? And, much more...
(5) Biology and the Environment
How will we protect our environment to ensure sustainable growth? This measurably affects all of the above questions. Will we effectively prevent the spread of global epidemics? How will humans' impact on the environment reshape the supply line? And, much more...
Looking back over relatively recent history, the most jarring and far-reaching changes in international relations have come from such dynamics: changing technologies, innovation, demographic changes, access to resources, economic depressions, financial shocks, group mentality (nationalism, ethnic strife, religious conflict, etc.), wars, and disease. Think back to the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions, the invention of electricity/sanitation/refrigeration/computers, the population expansion of the late 20th century, competition over oil and pervasive oil shocks, the Great Depression, the Great War of 1914-1918, the Great Influenza epidemic of 1917-1918, and the impact of the HIV/AIDS outbreak.
These drivers are ever present and will primarily dictate how the 21st century will play out. More to follow in the next blog.
